The voters verdict is in.

We won so fast.

I wasn't even ready for the speech.

Wow.

How about those numbers?

But what did you tell us?

Amendments four and five have been soundly defeated.

This is about saving America.

This is overwhelming.

A moment as I've ever felt in my life.

And I just wanna say, let's go win this thing together.

What do you get?

Call for surprises and the biggest winners and losers of primary Election Day in both states.

And more importantly, we ask, what happens now?

A week in review is made possible through the generous support of Bob and Marlese Gourley, the Francis Family Foundation, through the discretionary fund of David and Janice Francis, and by viewers like you.

Thank you.

Hello, I'm Nick Haines.

Glad to have you with us for this post-election edition of Weekend Review.

The campaign commercials have finally stopped.

The ballots have been counted.

Now comes the interesting part figuring out what it all means and what happens next.

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Now, to help make sense of the winners, the losers, the surprises and the consequences from the Kansas City Star government, elections and democracy reporter Kacen Bayless KCUR's chief political analyst Brian Ellison fresh from our on the ballot election special doctor Abigail Vegter, political scientist at William Jewell College.

And from the helm of your Johnson County post, Kyle Palmer.

Complete this sentence.

The biggest surprise case on election night was blank.

Yeah, I think the biggest surprise for me was just the resounding defeat of amendment four, an amendment five in Missouri.

I mean, I think there was some expectation that they face an uphill battle, but to lose every county in Missouri and not even surpass 20% of the statewide vote, I think was pretty stunning, though not one county in the entire state of Missouri voted for either of those in a majority.

No, it lost every county in the independent city of Saint Louis, lost Republicans lost.

Democrats lost urban, lost rural.

I mean, I think I've said on this program that we there's nothing that all eight congressional districts in the state could possibly agree on.

So nothing could ever pass under amendment four.

But I was wrong.

They all agreed that amendment four should not pass.

Interestingly on that one, by the way, the star did an analysis, a breakdown of all of these, these and this is in Shannon County, which is in the south part of Missouri, in the Ozarks, where President Trump won 84% of the vote in the last election, 83% of voters rejected amendment four, 92% voted against it.

Yeah, this was really a resounding defeat for amendment four and amendment five.

And these are voters, you know, who are politically engaged, politically knowledgeable.

Primary voters are somewhat different than general election voters and across the board, no matter who these voters were, they all really gave us a clear answer on how they felt about could could this have been different?

I know when the when we looked at these issues in our on the ballot special, Brian, you said, for instance, on the income tax vote, you know, if they added more information about, you know, what sales taxes might go up, they would actually have less of a vote for the idea.

Could they have done something differently, though, that would have made a difference?

I mean, I do I do think that that this had a number of problems from the start, and part of it was the uncertainty about what taxes might increase.

On the other hand, as I said on that show, I would stick with I don't know what they could have said that would, that would cause people to think differently about the the fears of removing that significant portion of the state's general revenue budget all at the same time.

I think folks were were just not convinced that there was a good alternative.

Now, we were told for instance, a case it didn't actually require a vote of the people to eliminate the the income tax itself.

It was because they wanted to increase other taxes, which would have been unconstitutional without this measure passing.

So is that going to be another effort now in some other way, to still do this without perhaps bypassing voters?

I think there will certainly certainly be a push to cut taxes.

I mean, this is something that Governor Kehoe ran on when he when he ran for governor in 2024.

I do wonder if the political will to do it all at once, to do sort of this big swing on the income tax is still there.

I think what we'll see over the next two years is maybe away at chipping away chipping away at taxes.

But I do wonder if if there is going to be another big swing at this because, I mean, it was such a resounding defeat.

How about a big swing or amendment four, which was really about requiring that all constitutional amendments get a majority in every single one of the congressional districts?

You know, you look at other states like Colorado, they require 55% support to pass amendments, Florida, 60%, New Hampshire 66%.

So he could do this differently.

Absolutely.

And those are all a little bit more likely palatable to voters.

But as we've been talking about with amendment five, pretty resounding rejection of amendment four.

So I think supporters of amendment four are going to need to take a step back, really think if there's any sort of appetite for this among residents before proposing a different solution.

Kyle Palmer, the biggest surprise for you on election night was blank.

Well, we could continue the amendment trend over in Kansas to the constitutional moment to change how Kansas Supreme Court justices are selected went down pretty heartily.

But we've seen that play out before in Kansas four years ago, with a value in both of them is almost the same exact scenario.

Wash.

Rinse.

Repeat.

Republicans put the issue on a, a low turnout August primary ballot, and still voters reject it.

I'll go another direction as well.

In Johnson County, particularly the, I think pretty comfortable victory by Cindy Holsinger in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, taking out two other Johnson County ins to carry her party's banner forward into November against Tim Masterson, the Republican who won on the Republican side, I think you saw in the days before the election that she had the momentum, but still to come out nearly ten percentage points ahead of Courson, who had the backing of Laura Kelly, who had a 2 to 1 fundraising margin.

I think we're still pretty surprising.

What's her big liability now as she goes into this general election?

Well, she ran and she has found some anti-establishment energy both in Johnson County and beyond in Kansas.

Now, will that translate to being successful statewide?

Laura Kelly was, was elected twice running, I think kind of leaning into how boring she was and how she was kind of played up her her grandmother aspect and that she studiously stayed out of national issues.

And I don't think Cindy Holzer has touched upon national issues, but she seems to be much more willing to go toe to toe with someone like Masterson on culture war issues like transgender bathrooms and die.

But he also has his own liabilities with, being the head of the Senate and having no relief for property taxes over the last four years.

His vote for data center incentive.

So they're both going to have cases to make can she break out of the Johnson County bubble and appeal to people that Laura Kelly appeal to?

By the way, the other result.

So this is what they said on election night, including, what Tim Masterson said, what he wants to be the next Donald Trump for Kansas.

I think he wakes up every day trying to put more money in your pocket and make us a safer nation.

And you know, he has he's out there.

He wants us.

He wants investment in America.

He wants things made in America.

It's one thing we hit it off on.

I want that investment in Kansas.

I want things made in Kansas.

I want opportunities for all our children because that's what keeps them here.

I knew Ty Masterson would likely lead the Republicans and get the nomination.

It's okay to say, I heard somebody say yuck.

I mean, I got.

And after ten years in the House and Senate, I knew what would happen if he did because Ty Masterson as governor would drag us back into the Brownback years.

And even further, it would be politics as usual with a side of MAGA extremism.

I think that's what surprised me the most about these elections.

Nick, is not so much a surprise, but the cognitive dissonance between these seismic rejections of the ballot proposals.

But the support for the very conservatives who engineered those proposals on the Kansas side, Ty Masterson overwhelmingly winning his primary.

And on the Missouri side, folks like Rick Bratton and, John Patterson winning their elections easily.

And in legislative races or in the congressional race, these are the there is a there is a cognitive dissonance that I think voters in Missouri and Kansas sort of have to reconcile, or at least political pundits have to try to keep talking about and figure out.

You mentioned the Kansas constitutional amendment that would directly elect justices that failed with 62% of the vote.

We debated that issue with Kris Kobach, the Kansas attorney general.

This is, by the way, what he said during that debate about what would happen now if your side loses, in August, will you accept that Kansans have spoken or immediately begin looking for another way to change the system?

No, I think, Kansas.

Well, we spoke I think this is it.

I mean, it's this is the chance Kansans have to return to an elected Supreme Court like we had for a century.

Is this it, then?

In a word, probably not.

When we saw value them both in 2022, the abortion amendment.

That was a sound rejection of that measure.

But we have seen, the Republican led legislature over the last four years, tinker with abortion restrictions, some of them which have now been permanently struck by a Johnson County judge, I might say.

So.

Could we expect some of the same things?

Could they, change or restructure how the nominating commission is made?

Could they somehow, raise or change the retention, standards for Reelecting judges on these retention ballots?

They could go down that road.

They could try to tinker with the process.

I don't think it's over.

I can't imagine that they wouldn't try to kind of accept the will of the people, as they might say.

And move on, because it didn't happen in 2020.

There's a lot of other ways of trying to choose, Supreme Court justices, including the federal model, where in this case, the governor would be picking, the Supreme Court judge and then the public, the Senate will have to confirm it.

Yeah.

No, I agree, I do think that there's going to be another way to sort of tweak this.

I think pointing to value to value them both in 2022 is, is a really good like discrepancy to sort of point two right now.

What was your biggest surprise on election night?

Abigail.

Oh, you know, I don't know if it was necessarily a surprise.

Adam Hamilton performed as we really thought he would towards the end of this campaign, but it could lead to a surprising November.

He certainly has an uphill battle, but to see a Senate race in Kansas move from solid Republican to likely Republican, I mean, that's a shift.

I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means.

For Adam Hamilton, Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly 100 years, but it could lead to a much more interesting race than maybe we would have had with a different candidate and a lot more national attention.

By the way, the results on the screen in that Democratic primary for U.S.

Senate in Kansas, where Adam Hamilton now takes on incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

We don't need more yes men in Washington.

We need a senator who will speak up for their people.

One who listens, tells the truth, who has one guiding principle, and that is what is best for the people of Kansas, not what does the president want or my party want, but what is best for the people of Kansas, the mainstream Democrats in Washington today are big government socialists.

They've never seen a spending program that they haven't liked.

I'm going to be focused truly on the cost of living, making sure that your families are safe and secure.

The last time we did this program, you said you weren't sure that he was going to be successful in that fall election with Roger Marshall.

Have you changed your mind now, Brian?

I don't think I have changed my mind.

I do think we did see the shifting in the Cook Political Report and others who do this sort of analysis from solid Republican to leans Republican or likes Republican, likely Republican.

I don't think he has any less of an uphill battle than he did before, but I think we have sort of seen the debate crystallize.

Roger Marshall talking there about affordability.

I think he would like very much, for example, for President Trump to talk more about affordability.

And I think, Roger Marshall is now more subject than he was before to national headwinds and national trends.

And if they continue to trend against Republicans, that does give Adam Hamilton a little more of a chance than he had before, which which is bolstered, I should add, by his willingness to now shift back to what his first intentions were, which was to run as an independent.

I think you're going to hear him sounding very nonpartisan themes for the next three months as he tries to say to people who voted for Donald Trump, people who voted for Roger Marshall, you're safe with me.

I did notice that, actually, Adam Hamilton, though he did incredibly well.

Of course, in that election.

But he didn't win Sedgwick County, where Wichita is.

He didn't win Wyandotte County, and he didn't win Shawnee County.

What Topeka is.

Yeah.

This is something he's going to have to tap into.

I mean, I think that Adam Hamilton does give Democrats probably their best chance against Roger Marshall.

It'll be an uphill battle.

When he talks about his congregation, he usually talks about it being pretty 5050 split in terms of Republicans and Democrats.

That's something he's really going to have to tap into is that ability to message to both sides of the aisle in this race, we're going to track election night's biggest winners and losers and take a look at what happens next in Kansas and Missouri.

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Complete this sentence case.

The biggest winner on Election Day was blank.

I think it was direct democracy in Missouri, I think Missouri, Missouri voters pretty soundly protected their right to petition their own government.

And I think that the results were, like I said, they couldn't muster 20% yes votes in favorites.

How about the turnout overall?

Was there a bump?

There was.

I don't have the final numbers in front of me, but I think the predictions were that it was going to be not a historic turnout, but a historic over the last 20 years turnout.

Did you notice that in Johnson County, Kyle?

Yeah, I mean, it went up over 2024, for instance, I think was about 37% after unofficial votes on Tuesday night.

It's not going to come close to 2022.

Again with the value them both amendment on the ballot that year.

That was historic.

I think somewhere north of 55% turnout for a primary election, but still I think better than 2016, 18, 20 or 24.

So still pretty healthy.

Robust turnout.

Biggest winner for you, Abigail Victor, I might say Donald Trump was a big winner here.

Yes.

Kansas and Missouri.

His his endorsements sailed through time.

Masterson on the Kansas side will be the Republican nominee for governor.

We have offered in district four in Missouri and Bratton in district five in Missouri.

And Donald Trump continues his near-perfect streak of of getting involved in these primary elections and his endorsements going on to win the nomination.

Right.

And your biggest winner, I think if Kyle doesn't mind my venturing onto the Kansas side of the state line, I guess I think I think Cindy Holzer, emerges as a big winner to overcome the endorsement of your own party's governor for your opponent, and to do so by by more than ten percentage points.

Cindy Hillshire had to carve her own lane.

Even after the governor doubled down on the endorsement of Ethan Corson.

And she pulled off a commanding victory that gives her a clear message going into this race against time.

Masterson.

Kyle, I think the biggest winner, literally and symbolically, Congresswoman Sharice Davids, her victory margin, I think, was one of the largest on the night she won eight.

She had a first primary, and this was her first primary challenge in four.

After four terms in Congress, she won, I think, 83 to 17% after unofficial totals.

So it was a de facto unopposed.

But her opponent, Sarah, ran, intentionally to the left of her call for abolishing Ice, called for Medicare for all, called for a $15 an hour minimum wage.

And that message never really struck or resonated.

There was never any sort of sweating by Sharice Davids.

So when you see, you know, democratic, socialist aligned victories in other parts of the U.S., including in Michigan on Tuesday night, Free State, which was able to hold serve by a 5 to 1 margin in Johnson County.

I also put down the biggest winner as being a political reporters case.

And because I've never seen an election when it was so decided so early on, all of the major races were so decisive, weren't they?

There were no nail biters at all?

No.

I was at a watch party along Troost Avenue.

It was, for the opponents of amendments four and five, and I think they called it around 8:00 at night.

I had a very early night.

I can't believe none of you mentioned, by the way, is the biggest winner as Stacy Lake.

She could be the next permanent replacement for ousted Jackson County Executive Frank white.

Getting more of the vote than her two closest rivals, combined.

She says she's going to be different than any other executive in history.

What does that mean, Brian?

I mean, I think a number of us were surprised, certainly by the margin of victory.

What it said, it said something about name familiarity.

Stacy Lake appeared on the ballot previously.

She came very close to upsetting Frank white in an earlier primary election.

But I think it also did say something about the policies she advocated.

She came out against data centers, at least tax incentives for data centers.

She took a very strong line on the tax assessment issue and on the the need to, not only support, refunds for people's overpayments, but but to cut ties with the technology company that that might have been responsible for some of those overpayments.

I think folks, heard a very clear message from her.

And she did stand out in other ways, against a field of all men, mostly white, and a lot of people who'd been in county government for a long time, whereas she represented something genuinely different.

She does have a Republican opponent in the fall, a combat veteran, by the name of Allen Rolfing.

But traditionally, Republicans haven't fared very well in those county races.

We have generally assumed that the winner of the Democratic primary for Jackson County Executive is going to win, but but we shouldn't make assumptions.

I am going to slide over to Kansas, because in Johnson County, with all of those complaints we've heard recently about everything from whether it be data centers, property taxes, you name it.

Mike Kelly did actually rather well in his race for Johnson County chair.

Yeah, a three person race.

He was the top vote getter by far, 57%.

His two more conservative challengers combined had about 43%.

You figure if that consolidates around Karen Stark offense, who came in second for the general election, he would still have a pretty safe path to reelection.

I mean, Mike Kelly has kind of become this avatar for, a new kind of changing demographically Johnson County, both for his supporters and his detractors, that Johnson County is generally younger, a little bit more left leaning, and his policies about, kind of tolerating higher taxes.

He doesn't raise taxes, but he hasn't cut them nearly as much as his opponents want, tolerating higher taxes in order to get the services that you want to fund, things like public safety and EMS.

There's a real contrast with Sankovich, who's going to be there in the general election because she's calling for pretty steep property tax cuts back to the revenue neutral rate, which would require a lot of steeper budget cuts.

She also is open to.

And so that, choice will be, pretty apparent for Johnson County voters.

Complete this sentence.

Carson.

The biggest loser on Election Day was blank.

I'm going to go back to Missouri again.

I think the biggest loser on Tuesday night was, Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe and, including both both states.

I do think Republican lawmakers in both states suffered pretty, resounding losses when it comes to those constitutional amendments.

And the income tax was his main priority.

He didn't get that.

It fails, but he wasn't around to answer any questions because he was off to Panama on a trade mission.

He's out of the country, right?

Yes, he I think he left the next day.

I think he stuck around for election night and then left the day after.

Does this make him politically vulnerable now, do you think?

I think I think it certainly wounds him.

I think when we think of Governor Kehoe, we have to look back to 2024.

When he was in his Republican primary, he faced two challengers to his right flank, received 39% of the vote.

Ever since that election, he's sort of taken these big swings on, Missouri's congressional map under pressure from Donald Trump, the income tax.

And then now this initiative, petition, proposal, it'll be interesting to see over the next two years whether we see a more scaled back Governor Kehoe or he continues to sort of take these big, high profile, pretty partizan decisions with some of the gloating from Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas this week, who is also feeling good because all of the kinds of silly questions posed, there was some sort of sense that perhaps he may be interested in running for statewide office in 2028, when Governor Mckeel is back on the ballot.

As a result of this election, he has pretty steadfastly said he's not going to do that.

But but of course, a lot can change over the, over the coming months.

I mean, I think Governor Kehoe is weakened, by what happened, but I think most of that week that increased weakness happens with his own party.

He he commandeered a lot of the energy over the last legislative session to this income tax reduction idea that a lot of people put their necks out on the line.

Some of them might have even lost their primaries, in part because of that.

I think, I don't think he necessarily draws serious challengers two years from now for governor, but I think it does cost him in what he's able to put on the table as priorities going forward.

Biggest loser.

Abigail.

Oh my goodness.

I was going to say Mike Kehoe as well.

But really those supporters of amendment four and five in Missouri, if we're staying on the Missouri side, as we've already mentioned in this conversation, resounding rejection and you're going home with your tail between your legs a little bit here.

But Mike Kehoe did say, well, that was because of special interests.

That was the best.

We call this an explanation for that.

The biggest loser for you on election night was who kind of riffing off Bryan's, take on, mentioning Quinton Lucas and Mayor's cautionary tale in Kansas about popular male mayors trying to move up to the statewide level.

Kurt Skoog, mayor of Overland Park just a year ago.

Nine months, in fact, won reelection as Overland Park mayor with 70% of the vote flying high, and then decided to enter the Democratic gubernatorial contest literally hours before the filing deadline in June.

And, kind of led to some scratched heads and some raised eyebrows about what the motivation was.

He explicitly said he didn't think Corson or Horschel were electable, and that he was coming in kind of on a message of electability and ended up garnering 13% of the vote in his own party's primary.

I don't think it hurts him long term, at least politically, in Overland Park.

But what about Cindy?

Well, that's a that's what I was going to say.

Do you think now that she.

Whoa.

This is an opportunity for some vengeance?

You may not get much of an ear from the governor's mouth relationally and might her right, because he came in at the last minute.

And these were two popular Democrats from his own county, and he again made his message based on the fact that he didn't think they could win.

Brian, your biggest loser on Election Day was blank.

Well, I don't think it's fair that Kasim gets to go first every time because I agree, Mike.

Okay, that's the big loser.

But but I will I would expand it more broadly to this, to the Republican leadership of Missouri that that was willing to fall in line.

But now I think might be less willing to do so going forward.

And we could also say data centers were the biggest loser.

Cindy Holsure.

The statewide moratorium, she's most fierce against those in Kansas.

We had Stacy Lake, who doesn't want to spend one dime as a Jackson County executive if she's elected to be spent on data centers, too.

And I will be interested to see how Tim Masterson threads that needle, because he voted for the incentives for the data centers.

They are extremely unpopular in rural Republican areas, even in Johnson County, around Gardner and DeSoto and Edgerton.

And so how he squares that circle and explains that vote, because you can imagine Cindy Hollister going after that.

And on that, we will say our election week has been reviewed courtesy of William Jewell, political scientist Doctor Abigail Vegterand the stars Kacen Bayless from the Johnson County Post, Kyle Palmer and KCUR's Brian Ellison, and I'm Nick Haines from all of us here during the fundraising week here at Kansas City PBS.

Be Well, keep Calm and carry on.